Election prognostication

I’m not much of a political blogger. Oh, I’m capable of it; I just lack the fervour and the need to spout off on a regular basis. More power to them that do; I just find the non-political niches that much more interesting at the present time.

Canadian political bloggers have been giving their predictions over the past few days — see here and here, for example — about the results nationwide and in their own particular ridings.

For my own riding (Pontiac), the usual conventional wisdom is whether the seat will stay Liberal or go to the Conservatives, what with Judy Grant as a strong local candidate. But I think that the riding could go to the BQ tomorrow.

Despite a large anglophone population in the riding, the seat is no longer safe for the Liberals. The Liberal candidate, David Smith, has not been a strong campaigner from what I can tell — viz., his brochure, which reads like a résumé, and a rather thin one at that. In true Team Martin fashion, he seems to have been better at knocking off the Chrétienite incumbent than in persuading ordinary voters to support him. Couple his lack of experience and lack of incumbency with the general pissed-off-with-the-Liberals attitude in Quebec in the moment and the seat is in play.

But I don’t think the Conservatives will be the sole benefactors. Rather, I think that Liberal support will bleed both ways: anglophones largely to the Conservatives, and francophones (who, despite what some people believe, are in the majority in this riding) largely to the Bloc. The Bloc has come second in the last three elections, and though redistribution has made the seat arguably more federalist, I think it’s more likely that the Bloc candidate, Hubert Leduc, will win instead of Grant (who, while likely quite popular in anglophone areas like Chelsea, Wakefield, Shawville and Quyon, is probably playing less well elsewhere, but that’s just a guess). In a nutshell, the Bloc is closer to the brass ring than the Tories are.

Just imagine the irony of Shawville having a Member of Parliament from the Bloc. Oy. The town will collectively shit itself.

As for the national results? I haven’t a clue. And neither do you. We’ll find out tomorrow.