Never mind that I’ve all but ignored the election campaign on this here blog; like every other poseur with a blog I’ll be live-blogging the election results. Keep watching this entry!
To keep myself out of legal trouble, I will not be talking about the results until 10:00 PM EST, and comments will be closed until after that time.
9:33 PM — CBC is reporting the results from Atlantic Canada, but I can’t tell you what they are.
9:42 PM — In the meantime, a digression on a general theme. You’ll recall that after the 2004 election I opined that both the Conservatives and Liberals ran awful campaigns that focused on how terrible the other guys were. Both were guilty of it last time; since then, the Conservatives have learned, and ran a positive campaign that did not focus solely on Liberal scandals. The Liberal campaign, however, could be summed up in one word: “BOO!” The now-notorious ads (“In our cities. In Canada. We’re not making this up.”) were simply variations on that theme. Locally, our incumbent MP ran profoundly negative ads in the local papers and in a flyer that did nothing but vilify the opposition. (Considering how profoundly weak our MP is, it’s perhaps his only defence against demonstrably better candidates in virtually every party.)
10:04 PM — Atlantic Canada: 20 Liberal, 9 Conservative, 3 NDP. Cons take Tobique-Mactaquac and Avalon. Cons strong second to the Bloc in the Îles-de-la-Madeleine. A shock-jock radio announcer is leading as an independent in Portneuf—Jacques Cartier. Strong Tory results in Quebec so far. All Atlantic Liberal ministers declared re-elected, also Ralph Goodale in Regina. Most results still only from a handful of polls; it’s still early. Total leading/elected to this point: 93 Cons, 87 Lib, 41 BQ, 20 NDP, 1 Ind.
10:05 PM — Two polls reporting only from La Salle—Émard, but Martin’s trailing. Quebec leading/elected: BQ 42, Tories 9, Liberals 8, Ind 1. BQ down 7 points, Libs down 16, Cons up 33. Wendy Mesley says Pontiac — my seat — looks like it’s going to the Conservatives — no results displayed.
10:08 PM — CBC projects Conservative minority.
10:11 PM — Leading/elected: 103 Cons, 86 Lib, 51 BQ, 20 NDP, 1 Ind. I’m looking for some Pontiac numbers.
10:15 PM — Here we go: Pontiac results from the Globe and Mail site. Conservative Lawrence Cannon is way out in front with 44 per cent of the vote at the moment, a plurality of more than 400 votes, after 20 out of 213 polls. The Greens are leading in a northern B.C. riding. Leading/elected: 107 Cons, 91 Lib, 49 BQ, 23 NDP, 1 Grn, 1 Ind.
10:19 PM — Cannon’s up by over a thousand after 30 polls. More than 51 per cent. I’m having trouble keeping track of other races.
10:20 PM — Ontario: Libs down 23, Cons up 16, NDP up 7. Total leading/elected: 109 Con, 89 Lib, 52 BQ, 22 NDP, 1 Ind.
10:21 PM — Cons leading in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell (Don Boudria’s old seat). Roger Gallaway trailing in Sarnia-Lambton.
10:23 PM — Mahoney (Lib) leading in Ottawa Centre. Proulx (Lib) leading in Hull—Aylmer. Cannon (Cons) declared elected in Pontiac.
10:26 PM — Crazy Cheryl re-elected in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke. CBC profiling Con wins in Quebec: 10 seats. (Libs 12, BQ 50, Ind 1.) Josée Verner elected in Louis-St-Laurent; Maxime Bernier leads by 2,500 votes in Beauce; Jean-Pierre Blackburn wins Jonquière—Alma. Paul Martin declared re-elected in his seat.
10:33 PM — Milliken re-elected in Kingston. Cons leading in Peterborough. BQ leading in Gatineau (!).
10:35 PM — 115 Con, 98 Lib, 50 BQ, 28 NDP, 1 Ind.
10:37 PM — Cons take Lévis—Bellechasse; Libs hold Ottawa South and Ottawa—Vanier and continue to lead in Hull—Aylmer. Libs down 5 points on the prairies: Anne McLellan trailing in Edmonton Centre, Reg Alcock narrowly behind (at the moment) in Winnipeg South.
10:39 PM — Astronaut Marc Garneau trailing badly in Vaudreuil—Soulanges. Carolyn Bennett re-elected in St. Paul’s. NDP now leading in Ottawa Centre. Baird takes Ottawa West—Nepean for the Conservatives.
10:41 PM — The Ottawa CBC station is focusing on local seats on the sidebar; I’ll switch to Newsworld for national results. Oh here we go: Bulte trailing in Parkdale—High Park, Tony Valeri defeated in Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, both to the NDP.
10:44 PM — 121 Cons, 102 Lib, 50 BQ, 30 NDP, 1 Ind.
10:46 PM — CBC ticker reports Gallaway calling for Martin’s resignation. That didn’t take long. Ignatieff elected in Etobicoke Lakeshore; Neville holds Winnipeg South Centre for the Liberals.
10:48 PM — Schreyer defeated in Selkirk—Interlake (see previous entry). Cons leading in Nunavut. Denis Paradis trails Bloc in Brome—Missisquoi. Bloc takes Gatineau. Liza Frulla defeated by Bloc. Pettigrew trails Bloc. Independent shock-jock radio guy André Arthur elected in Portneuf.
10:55 PM — Paradis defeated; Lapierre leading; Dion, Robillard re-elected.
10:57 PM — John Godfrey, Joe Volpe, Joe Fontana, John McCallum, Albina Guarnieri re-elected.
10:58 PM — Holy shit: Belinda got re-elected. Andy Mitchell leading Tony Clement. Bill Graham re-elected. Olivia Chow leads Tony Ianno, but it’s close. Jim Peterson, Ken Dryden re-elected.
11:01 PM — I don’t think the seat counts have changed at all in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, have they? CBC reports “Liberals lose both Alberta seats” — which means so long, Landslide Annie. (Note, by the way, that we don’t get CTV Newsnet out here.)
11:04 PM — Wayne Gretzky’s uncle lost. Stephen Fletcher re-elected in my old stomping ground in Winnipeg, with a healthy margin.
11:08 PM — 121 Cons, 104 Lib, 50 BQ, 31 NDP, 1 radio guy. Dosanjh, Cotler re-elected.
11:10 PM — Proulx re-elected in Hull—Aylmer. So the Outaouais split its three seats: one Conservative, one Liberal, one Bloc.
11:12 PM — Marc Garneau declared defeated in Vaudreuil—Soulanges.
11:13 PM — With 169 polls reporting in Pontiac, Lawrence Cannon (Con) got 35.5 per cent, Lapointe (BQ) got 28.2 per cent, Smith (Lib) got 23.8 per cent. Compare with last week’s poll — Cannon is up by nine points from that poll.
11:15 PM — You’ve got to be kidding. The only riding still to report is Vancouver Centre: Hedy Fry vs. Svend Robinson.
11:17 PM — Desjarlais splits the NDP vote in Churchill; Tina Keeper is narrowly ahead. Alcock in tight race. McLellan’s fate is still officially up in the air, pace earlier reports.
11:20 PM — Holy shit; did Jean Lapierre get re-elected? Keeper now narrowly trails NDP Ashton in Churchill; it’ll be close.
11:23 PM — Hedy Fry leads Svend Robinson in early returns.
11:27 PM — Bulte defeated. Olivia Chow leads Tony Ianno by a few hundred, with about half the polls in. Holy poo: the Liberals picked up North Vancouver — a palpable gain. Tony Clement, Jim Flaherty elected — Tony finally wins one.
11:30 PM — McLellan defeated, this time for sure, by nearly 10 points after a quarter of the polls have reported. Lapierre won by four points.
11:32 PM — 124 Con, 103 Lib, 51 BQ, 29 NDP, 1 Ind. Emerson re-elected in Vancouver Kingsway.
11:34 PM — Check previous regarding Tony Clement: all polls reporting, he won by only 21 votes. Recount!
11:35 PM — Maria Minna, Ruby Dhalla re-elected. Paddy Torsney, Janko Peric defeated.
11:37 PM — My count of defeated cabinet ministers: Frulla, McLellan, Pettigrew, Valeri — anyone else?
11:40 PM — Tina Keeper’s lead is starting to widen. Joy Smith holds Kildonan—St. Paul, defeating Terry Duguid again. Alcock’s lead is still very narrow, 141 votes at the moment. Olivia Chow elected in Trinity—Spadina.
11:53 PM — Conservatives down six in B.C.
11:55 PM — Hedy Fry defeats Svend Robinson in Vancouver Centre.
Midnight — 125 Conservatives, 103 Liberals, 50 Bloc Québécois, 29 NDP, 1 radio host. Ethel Blondin-Andrew trailing in Western Arctic. Paul Martin about to give his speech.
12:12 AM — Tina Keeper’s in in Churchill; cabinet ministers results on the CBC site.
12:13 AM — Paul Martin announces he’s stepping down — paraphrasing, he won’t lead the party into the next election.