The Equity is reporting the following numbers from a recent CROP poll of the Pontiac riding (which is where I live):

• Christine Émond-Lapointe, Bloc Québécois, 27 per cent;
• Lawrence Cannon, Conservative, 26 per cent;
• David Smith, Liberal (incumbent), 19 per cent;
• Céline Brault, NDP, 13 per cent; and
• Moe Garahan, Green, three per cent.

Plus or minus six percentage points, 19 times out of 20, yadda yadda yadda. (I’d seen other numbers elsewhere for the same poll — Bloc 30, Conservative 29, Liberal 22 — but can’t source them; they’re proportionate, in any event.)

If these numbers are correct, they represent a significant shift in votes, particularly in terms of the near-total collapse of the Liberal vote — due not only to the Liberals’ unpopularity in Quebec due to the sponsorship scandal, but also because of incumbent MP Smith’s own difficulties — and a doubling of the NDP’s vote from last time, as the following graph shows:

If you had asked me at the start of the campaign, I would never have predicted a single-point spread between the Conservative and Bloc candidates, with Smith well behind. A lot has happened since.